FREE ESSAY ON ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN 2000

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN 2000

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN 2000
The expansion of U.S. economic activity maintained considerable momentum through the
early months of 2000 despite the firming in credit markets that has occurred over the
past year. Only recently has the pace of real activity shown signs of having moderated
from the extremely rapid rate of increase that prevailed during the second half of 1999
and the first quarter of 2000. Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 5-1/2 percent in
the first quarter of 2000. Private domestic final sales, which had accelerated in the
second half of 1999, were particularly robust, rising at an annual rate of almost 10
percent in the first quarter. Underlying that surge in domestic spending were many of the
same factors that had contributed to the con-siderable strength of outlays in the second
half of 1999. The ongoing influence of substantial increases in real income and wealth
continued to fuel consumer spend-ing, and business investment, which continues to be
undergirded by the desire to take advantage of new, cost-saving technologies, was further
buoyed by an accel-eration in sales and profits late last year. Export demand posted a
solid gain during the first quarter while imports rose even more rapidly to meet booming
domestic demand. The available data, on balance, point to another solid increase in real
GDP in the second quarter, although they suggest that private household and business
fixed investment spending likely slowed noticeably from the extraordinary first-quarter
pace. Through June, the expansion remained brisk enough to keep labor utilization near
the very high levels reached at the end of 1999 and to raise the factory utilization rate
to close to its long-run average by early spring.
Inflation rates over the first half of 2000 were elevated by an additional increase in
the price of imported crude oil, which led to sharp hikes in retail energy prices early
in the year and again around midyear. Apart from energy, consumer price inflation so far
this year has been somewhat higher than during 1999, and some of that acceleration may be
attributable to the indirect effects of higher en-ergy costs on the prices of core goods
and services. Sustained strong gains in worker productivity have kept increases in unit
labor costs minimal despite the per-sistence of a historically low rate of unemployment.
THE HOUSEHOLD SECTOR
CONSUMER SPENDING
Consumer spending was exceptionally vigorous during the first quarter of 2000. Real
personal consumption expenditures rose at an annual rate of 7-3/4 percent, the sharpest
increase since early 1983. At that time, the economy was rebounding from a deep recession
during which households had deferred discretionary pur-chases. In contrast, the
first-quarter surge in consumption came on the heels of two years of very robust spending
during which real outlays increased at an annual rate of more than 5 percent, and the
personal saving rate dropped sharply.
Outlays for durable goods, which rose at a very fast pace in 1998 and 1999, accelerated
during the first quarter to an annual rate of more than 24 percent. Most notably,
spending on motor vehicles, which had climbed to a new high in 1999, jumped even further
in the first quarter of 2000 as unit sales of light motor vehi-cles soared to a record
rate of 18.1 million units. In addition, households' spending on computing equipment and
software rebounded after the turn of the year; some consumers apparently had postponed
their purchases of these goods in late 1999 before the century date change. Outlays for
nondurable goods posted a solid in-crease of 5-3/4 percent in the first quarter, marked
by a sharp upturn in spending on clothing and shoes. Spending for consumer services also
picked up in the first quarter, rising at an annual rate of 5-1/2 percent. Spending was
quite brisk for a number of non-energy consumer services, ranging from recreation and
telephone use to brokerage fees. Also contributing to the acceleration was a rebound in
out-lays for energy services, which had declined in late 1999, when weather was
unsea-sonably warm.
In recent months, the rise in consumer spending has moderated considerably from the
phenomenal pace of the first quarter, with much of the slowdown in out-lays for goods. At
an annual rate of 17-1/4 million units in the second quarter, light motor vehicles sold
at a rate well below their first-quarter pace. Nonetheless, that level of sales is still
historically high, and with prices remaining damped and auto-makers continuing to use
incentives, consumers' assessments of the motor vehicle market continue to be positive.
The information on retail sales for the April-to-June period indicate that consumer
expenditures for other goods rose markedly slower in the second quarter than in the first
quarter, at a pace well below the av-erage rate of increase during the preceding two
years. In contrast, personal con-sumption expenditures for consumer services continued to
rise relatively briskly in April and May.
Real disposable personal income increased at an annual rate of about 3 per-cent between
December and May--slightly below the 1999 pace of 3-3/4 percent. However, the impetus to
spending from the rapid rise in household net worth was still considerable, labor markets
remained tight, and confidence was still high. As a result, households continued to allow
their spending to outpace their flow of cur-rent income, and the personal saving rate, as
measured in the national income and product accounts, dropped further, averaging less
than 1 percent during the first five months of the year.
After having boosted the ratio of household net worth to disposable income to a record
high in the first quarter, stock prices have fallen back, suggesting less impetus to
consumer spending going forward. In addition, smaller employment gains and the pickup in
energy prices have moderated the rise in real income of late. Al-though these
developments left some imprint on consumer attitudes in June, house-holds remained
relatively upbeat about their prospective financial situation, accord-ing to the results
of the University of Michigan Survey Research Center (SRC) sur-vey. However, they became
a bit less positive about the outlook for business condi-tions and saw a somewhat greater
likelihood of a rise in unemployment over the coming year. 
RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT
Housing activity stayed at a high level during the first half of this year. Homebuild-ers
began the year with a considerable backlog of projects that had developed as the
exceptionally strong demand of the previous year strained capacity. As a result, they
maintained starts of new single-family homes at an annual rate of 1.33 million units, on
average, through April--matching 1999's robust pace. Households' demand for single-family
homes was supported early in the year by ongoing gains in jobs and income and the earlier
run-up in wealth; those forces apparently were sufficient to offset the effects that
higher mortgage interest rates had on the affordability of new homes. Sales of new homes
were particularly robust, setting a new record by March; but sales of existing units
slipped below their 1999 high. As a result of the continued strength in sales, the
homeownership rate reached a new high in the first quarter. 
By the spring, higher mortgage interest rates were leaving a clearer mark on the
attitudes of both consumers and builders. The Michigan SRC survey reported that
households' assessments of home buying conditions dropped between April and June to the
lowest level in more than nine years. Survey respondents noted that, besides higher
financing costs, higher prices of homes were becoming a factor in their less positive
assessment of market conditions. Purchases of existing homes were little changed, on
balance, in April and May from the first-quarter average; however, because these sales
are recorded at the time of closing, they tend to be a lagging indicator of demand. Sales
of new homes--a more current indicator--fell back in April and May, and homebuilders
reported that sales dropped further in June. Perhaps a sign that softer demand has begun
to affect construction, starts of new single-family homes slipped to a rate of 1-1/4
million units in May. That level of new homebuilding, although noticeably slower than the
robust pace that charac-terized the fall and winter period, is only a bit below the
elevated level that pre-vailed throughout much of 1998, when single-family starts reached
their highest level in twenty years. Starts of multifamily housing units, which also had
stepped up sharply in the first quarter of the year, to an annual rate of 390,000 units,
settled back to a 340,000 unit rate in April and May.
HOUSEHOLD FINANCE
Fueled by robust spending, especially early in the year, the expansion of household debt
remained brisk during the first half of 2000, although below the very strong 1999 growth
rate. Apparently, a favorable outlook for income and employment, along with rising
wealth, made households feel confident enough to continue to spend and take on debt.
Despite rising mortgage and consumer loan rates, household debt increased at an annual
rate of nearly 8 percent in the first quarter, and pre-liminary data point to a similar
increase in the second quarter.
Mortgage debt expanded at an annual rate of 7 percent in the first quarter, boosted by
the high level of housing activity. Household debt not secured by real estate--including
credit card balances and auto loans--posted an impressive 10 per-cent gain in the first
quarter to help finance a large expansion in outlays for con-sumer durables, especially
motor vehicles. The moderation in the growth of house-hold debt this year has been driven
primarily by its mortgage component: Prelimi-nary data for the second quarter suggest
that, although consumer credit likely de-celerated from the first quarter, it still grew
faster than in 1999.
Debt in margin accounts, which is largely a household liability and is not in-cluded in
reported measures of credit market debt, has declined, on net, in recent months,
following a surge from late in the third quarter of 1999 through the end of March 2000.
There has been no evidence that recent downdrafts in share prices this year caused
serious repayment problems at the aggregate level that might pose broader systemic
concerns.
The combination of rapid debt growth and rising interest rates has pushed the household
debt-service burden to levels not reached since the late 1980s. Nonetheless, with
household income and net worth both having grown rapidly, and employment prospects
favorable, very few signs of worsening credit problems in the household sector have
emerged, and commercial banks have reported in recent Federal Reserve surveys that they
remain favorably disposed to make consumer in-stallment and mortgage loans. Indeed,
financial indicators of the household sector have remained mostly positive: The rate of
personal bankruptcy filings fell in the first quarter to its lowest level since 1996;
delinquency rates on home mortgages and auto loans remained low; and the delinquency rate
on credit cards edged down further, although it remained in the higher range that has
prevailed since the mid-1990s. However, delinquency rates may be held down, to some
extent, by the surge in new loan originations in recent quarters because newly originated
loans are less likely to be delinquent than seasoned ones.
THE BUSINESS SECTOR
FIXED INVESTMENT
The boom in capital spending extended into the first half of 2000 with few indica-tions
that businesses' desire to take advantage of more-efficient technologies is diminishing.
Real business fixed investment surged at an annual rate of almost 24 percent in the first
quarter of the year, rebounding sharply from its lull at the end of 1999, when firms
apparently postponed some projects because of the century date change. In recent months,
the trends in new orders and shipments of nonde-fense capital goods suggest that demand
has remained solid. 
Sustained high rates of investment spending have been a key feature shaping the current
economic expansion. Business spending on new equipment and software has been propelled
importantly by ongoing advances in computer and information technologies that can be
applied to a widening range of business processes. The ability of firms to take advantage
of these emerging developments has been sup-ported by the strength of domestic demand and
by generally favorable conditions in credit and equity markets. In addition, because
these high-technology goods can be produced increasingly efficiently, their prices have
continued to decline steeply, providing additional incentive for rapid investment. The
result has been a signifi-cant rise in the stock of capital in use by businesses and an
acceleration in the flow of services from that capital as more-advanced vintages of
equipment replace older ones. The payoff from the prolonged period during which firms
have upgraded their plant and equipment has increasingly shown through in the economy's
improved pro-ductivity performance.
Real outlays for business equipment and software shot up at an annual rate of nearly 25
percent in the first quarter of this year. That jump followed a modest increase in the
final quarter of 1999 and put spending for business equipment and software back on the
double-digit uptrend that has prevailed throughout the cur-rent economic recovery.
Concerns about potential problems with the century date change had the most noticeable
effect on the patterns of spending for computers and peripherals and for communications
equipment in the fourth and first quarters; expenditures for software were also affected,
although less so. For these catego-ries of goods overall, the impressive resurgence in
business purchases early this year left little doubt that the underlying strength in
demand for high-tech capital goods had been only temporarily interrupted by the century
date change. Indeed, nominal shipments of office and computing equipment and of
communication devices registered sizable increases over the April-May period.
In the first quarter, business spending on computers and peripheral equip-ment was up
almost 40 percent from a year earlier--a pace in line with the trend of the current
expansion. Outlays for communications equipment, however, acceler-ated; the first-quarter
surge brought the year-over-year increase in spending to 35 percent, twice the pace that
prevailed a year earlier. Expanding Internet usage has been driving the need for new
network architectures. In addition, cable companies have been investing heavily in
preparation for their planned entry into the markets for residential and commercial
telephony and broad-band Internet services.
Demand for business equipment outside of the high-tech area was also strong at the
beginning of the year. In the first quarter, outlays for industrial equipment rose at a
brisk pace for a third consecutive quarter as the recovery of the manu-facturing sector
from the effects of the Asian crisis gained momentum. In addi-tion, investment in farm
and construction machinery, which had fallen steadily dur-ing most of 1999, turned up,
and shipments of civilian aircraft to domestic custom-ers increased. More recent data
show a further rise in the backlog of unfilled or-ders placed with domestic firms for
equipment and machinery (other than high-tech items and transportation equipment),
suggesting that demand for these items has been well maintained. However, business
purchases of motor vehicles are likely to drop back in the second quarter from the very
high level recorded at the beginning of the year. In particular, demand for heavy trucks
appears to have been adversely affected by higher costs of fuel and shortages of
drivers.
Real investment in private nonresidential structures jumped at an annual rate of more
than 20 percent in the first quarter of the year after having declined in 1999. Both last
year's weakness and this year's sudden and widespread revival are difficult to explain
fully. Nonetheless, the higher levels of spending on office build-ings, other commercial
facilities, and industrial buildings recorded early this year would seem to accord well
with the overall strength in aggregate demand. However, the fundamentals in this sector
of the economy are mixed. Available information suggests that property values for
offices, retail space, and warehouses have been rising more slowly than they were several
years ago. However, office vacancy rates have come down, which suggests that, at least at
an aggregate level, the office sec-tor is not overbuilt. The vacancy rate for industrial
buildings has also fallen, but in only a few industries, such as semiconductors and other
electronic components, are capacity pressures sufficiently intense to induce significant
expansion of produc-tion facilities.
INVENTORY INVESTMENT
The ratio of inventories to sales in many nonfarm industries moved lower early this year.
Those firms that had accumulated some additional stocks toward the end of 1999 as a
precaution against disruptions related to the century date change seemed to have little
difficulty working off those inventories after the smooth transition to the new year.
Moreover, the first-quarter surge in final demand may have, to some extent, exceeded
businesses' expectations. In current-cost terms, non-auto manufacturing and trade
establishments built inventories in April and May at a somewhat faster rate than in the
first quarter but still roughly in line with the rise in their sales. As a result, the
ratio of inventories to sales, at current cost, for these businesses was roughly
unchanged from the first quarter. Overall, the ongo-ing downtrend in the ratios of
inventories to sales during the past several years suggests that businesses increasingly
are taking advantage of new technologies and software to implement better inventory
management.
The swing in inventory investment in the motor vehicle industry has been more pronounced
recently. Dealer stocks of new cars and light trucks were drawn down during the first
quarter as sales climbed to record levels. Accordingly, auto and truck makers kept
assemblies at a high level through June in order to maintain ready supplies of popular
models. Even though demand appears to have softened and inventories of a few models have
backed up, scheduled assemblies for the third quarter are above the elevated level of the
first half.
BUSINESS FINANCE
The economic profits of nonfinancial U.S. corporations posted another solid in-crease in
the first quarter. The profits that nonfinancial corporations earned on their domestic
operations were 10 percent above the level of a year earlier; the rise lifted the share
of profits in this sector's nominal output close to its 1997 peak. Nonetheless, with
investment expanding rapidly, businesses' external financ-ing requirements, measured as
the difference between capital expenditures and in-ternally generated funds, stayed at a
high level in the first half of this year. Busi-nesses' credit demands were also
supported by cash-financed merger and acquisi-tion activity. Total debt of nonfinancial
businesses increased at a 10-1/2 percent clip in the first quarter, close to the brisk
pace of 1999, and available information suggests that borrowing remained strong into the
second quarter. 
On balance, businesses have altered the composition of their funding this year to rely
more on shorter-term sources of credit and less on the bond market, although the funding
mix has fluctuated widely in response to changing market con-ditions. After the passing
of year-end, corporate borrowers returned to the bond market in volume in February and
March, but subsequent volatility in the capital market in April and May prompted a
pullback. In addition, corporate bond investors have been less receptive to smaller, less
liquid offerings, as has been true for some time.
In the investment-grade market, bond issuers have responded to investors' concerns about
the interest rate and credit outlook by shortening the maturities of their offerings and
by issuing more floating-rate securities. In the below-investment-grade market, many of
the borrowers who did tap the bond market in February and March did so by issuing
convertible bonds and other equity-related debt instruments. Subsequently, amid increased
equity market volatility and grow-ing investor uncertainty about the outlook for
prospective borrowers, credit spreads in the corporate bond market widened, and issuance
in the below-investment-grade market dropped sharply in April and May. Conditions in the
corpo-rate bond market calmed in late May and June, and issuance recovered to close to
its first-quarter pace.
As the bond market became less hospitable in the spring, many businesses evidently turned
to banks and to the commercial paper market for financing. Partly as a result, commercial
and industrial loans at banks have expanded briskly, even as a larger percentage of banks
have reported in Federal Reserve surveys that they have been tightening standards and
terms on such loans. 
Underscoring lenders' concerns about the creditworthiness of borrowers, the ratio of
liabilities of failed businesses to total liabilities has increased further so far this
year, and the default rate on outstanding junk bonds has risen further from the
relatively elevated level reached in 1999. Through midyear, Moody's In-vestors Service
has downgraded, on net, more debt in the nonfinancial business sector than it has
upgraded, although it has placed more debt on watch for future upgrades than downgrades.

Commercial mortgage borrowing has also expanded at a robust pace over the first half of
2000, as investment in office and other commercial building strength-ened. Extending last
year's trend, borrowers have tapped banks and life insurance companies as the financing
sources of choice. Banks, in particular, have reported stronger demand for commercial
real estate loans this year even as they have tightened standards a bit for approving
such loans. In the market for commercial mortgage-backed securities, yields have edged
higher since the beginning of the year.
THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
The incoming information regarding the federal budget suggests that the surplus in the
current fiscal year will surpass last year's by a considerable amount. Over the first
eight months of fiscal year 2000--the period from October to May--the uni-fied budget
recorded a surplus of about $120 billion, compared with $41 billion dur-ing the
comparable period of fiscal 1999. The Office of Management and Budget and the
Congressional Budget Office are now forecasting that, when the fiscal year closes, the
unified surplus will be around $225 billion to $230 billion, $100 billion higher than in
the preceding year. That outcome would likely place the surplus at more than 2-1/4
percent of GDP, which would exceed the most recent high of 1.9 percent, which occurred in
1951. 
The swing in the federal budget from deficit to surplus has been an important factor in
maintaining national saving. The rise in federal saving as a percentage of gross national
product from -3.5 percent in 1992 to 3.1 percent in the first quarter of this year has
been sufficient to offset the drop in personal saving that occurred over the same period.
As a result, gross saving by households, businesses, and gov-ernments has stayed above 18
percent of GNP since 1997, compared with 16-1/2 percent over the preceding seven years.
The deeper pool of national saving, along with the continued willingness of foreign
investors to finance our current account deficit, remains an important factor in
containing increases in the cost of capital and sustaining the rapid expansion of
domestic investment. With longer-run projec-tions showing a rising federal government
surplus over the next decade, this source of national saving could continue to expand.
The recent good news on the federal budget has been primarily on the re-ceipts side of
the ledger. Nonwithheld tax receipts were very robust this spring. Both final payments on
personal income tax liabilities for 1999 and final corporate tax payments for 1999 were
up substantially. So far this year, the withheld tax and social insurance contributions
on this year's earnings of individuals have also been strong. As a result, federal
receipts during the first eight months of the fiscal year were almost 12 percent higher
than they were during the year-earlier period.
While receipts have accelerated, federal expenditures have been rising only a little
faster than during fiscal 1999 and continue to decline as a share of nominal GDP. Nominal
outlays for the first eight months of the current fiscal year were 5-1/4 percent above
the year-earlier period. Increases in discretionary spending have picked up a bit so far
this year. In particular, defense spending has been running higher in the wake of the
increase in budget authority enacted last year. The Con-gress has also boosted
agricultural subsidies in response to the weakness in farm income. While nondiscretionary
spending continues to be held down by declines in net interest payments, categories such
as Medicaid and other health programs have been rising more rapidly of late.
As measured by the national income and product accounts, real federal ex-penditures for
consumption and gross investment dropped sharply early this year after having surged in
the fourth quarter of 1999. These wide quarter-to-quarter swings in federal spending
appear to have occurred because the Department of De-fense speeded up its payments to
vendors before the century date change; actual deliveries of defense goods and services
were likely smoother. On average, real de-fense spending in the fourth and first quarters
was up moderately from the aver-age level in fiscal 1999. Real nondefense outlays
continued to rise slowly.
With current budget surpluses coming in above expectations and large sur-pluses projected
to continue for the foreseeable future, the federal government has taken additional steps
aimed at preserving a high level of liquidity in the market for its securities. Expanding
on efforts to concentrate its declining debt issuance in fewer highly liquid securities,
the Treasury announced in February its intention to issue only two new five- and ten-year
notes and only one new thirty-year bond each year. The auctions of five- and ten-year
notes will remain quarterly, alternat-ing between new issues and smaller reopenings, and
the bond auctions will be semi-annual, also alternating between new and smaller reopened
offerings. The Treasury also announced that it was reducing the frequency of its one-year
bill auctions from monthly to quarterly and cutting the size of the monthly two-year note
auctions. In addition, the Treasury eliminated the April auction of the thirty-year
inflation-indexed bond and indicated that the size of the ten-year inflation-indexed note
of-ferings would be modestly reduced. Meanwhile, anticipation of even larger surpluses in
the wake of the surprising strength of incoming tax receipts so far in 2000 led the
Treasury to announce, in May, that it was again cutting the size of the monthly two-year
note auctions. The Treasury also noted that it is considering additional changes in its
auction schedule, including the possible elimination of the one-year bill auctions and a
reduction in the frequency of its two-year note auctions. 
Early in the year, the Treasury unveiled the details of its previously an-nounced
reverse-auction, or debt buyback, program, whereby it intends to retire seasoned, less
liquid, debt securities with surplus cash, enabling it to issue more on-the-run
securities. The Treasury noted that it would buy back as much as $30 billion this year.
The first operation took place in March, and in May the Treasury announced a schedule of
two operations per month through the end of July of this year. Through midyear, the
Treasury has conducted eight buyback operations, re-deeming a total of $15 billion.
Because an important goal of the buyback program is to help forestall further increases
in the average maturity of the Treasury's pub-licly held debt, the entire amount redeemed
so far has corresponded to securities with remaining maturities at the long end of the
yield curve (at least fifteen years).
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS
In the state and local sector, real consumption and investment expenditures regis-tered
another strong quarter at the beginning of this year. In part, the unseasona-bly good
weather appears to have accommodated more construction spending than usually occurs over
the winter. However, some of the recent rise is an extension of the step-up in spending
that emerged last year, when real outlays rose 5 percent after having averaged around 3
percent for the preceding three years. Higher fed-eral grants for highway construction
have contributed to the pickup in spending. In addition, many of these jurisdictions have
experienced solid improvements in their fiscal conditions, which may be allowing them to
undertake new spending initiatives.
The improving fiscal outlook for state and local governments has affected both the
issuance and the quality of state and local debt. Borrowing by states and municipalities
expanded sluggishly in the first half of this year. In addition to the favorable
budgetary picture, rising interest rates have reduced the demand for new capital
financing and substantially limited refunding issuance. Credit upgrades have outnumbered
downgrades by a substantial margin in the state and local sector. 
THE EXTERNAL SECTOR
TRADE AND THE CURRENT ACCOUNT
The deficits in U.S. external balances have continued to get even larger this year. The
current account deficit reached an annual rate of $409 billion in the first quarter of
2000, or 4-1/4 percent of GDP, compared with $372 billion and 4 per-cent in the second
half of 1999. Net payments of investment income were a bit less in the first quarter than
in the second half of last year owing to a sizable increase in income receipts from
direct investment abroad. Most of the expansion in the current account deficit occurred
in trade in goods and services. In the first quar-ter, the deficit in trade in goods and
services widened to an annual rate of $345 billion, a considerable expansion from the
deficit of $298 billion recorded in the second half of 1999. Trade data for April suggest
that the deficit may have in-creased further in the second quarter. 
U.S. exports of real goods and services rose at an annual rate of 6-1/4 per-cent in the
first quarter, following a strong increase in exports in the second half of last year.
The pickup in economic activity abroad that began in 1999 continued to support export
demand and partly offset negative effects on price competitiveness of U.S. products from
the dollar's past appreciation. By market destination, U.S. exports to Canada, Mexico,
and Europe increased the most. By product group, ex-port expansion was concentrated in
capital equipment, industrial supplies, and con-sumer goods. Preliminary data for April
suggest that growth of real exports re-mained strong. 
The quantity of imported goods and services continued to expand rapidly in the first
quarter. The increase in imports, at an annual rate of 11-3/4 percent, was the same in
the first quarter as in the second half of 1999 and reflected both the continuing
strength of U.S. domestic demand and the effects of past dollar appre-ciation on price
competitiveness. Imports of consumer goods, automotive products, semiconductors,
telecommunications equipment, and other machinery were particu-larly robust. Data for
April suggest that the second quarter got off to a strong start. The price of non-oil
goods imports rose at an annual rate of 1-3/4 percent in the first quarter, the second
consecutive quarter of sizable price increases follow-ing four years of price declines;
non-oil import prices in the second quarter posted only moderate increases. 
A number of developments affecting world oil demand and supply led to a fur-ther step-up
in the spot price of West Texas intermediate (WTI) crude this year, along with
considerable volatility. In the wake of the plunge of world oil prices dur-ing 1998, the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed in early 1999 to production
restraints that, by late in the year, restored prices to their 1997 level of about $20
per barrel. Subsequently, continued recovery of world de-mand, combined with some supply
disruptions, caused the WTI spot price to spike above $34 per barrel during March of this
year, the highest level since the Gulf War more than nine years earlier. Oil prices
dropped back temporarily in April, but in May and June the price of crude oil moved back
up again, as demand was boosted further by strong global economic activity and by
rebuilding of oil stocks. In late June, despite an announcement by OPEC that it would
boost production, the WTI spot price reached a new high of almost $35 per barrel, but by
early July the price had settled back to about $30 per barrel.
FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
Capital flows in the first quarter of 2000 continued to reflect the relatively strong
performance of the U.S. economy and transactions associated with global corporate
mergers. Foreign private purchases of U.S. securities remained brisk--well above the
record pace set last year. In addition, the mix of U.S. securities purchased by
foreigners in the first quarter showed a continuation of last year's trend toward smaller
holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and larger holdings of U.S. agency and corporate
securities. Private-sector foreigners sold more than $9 billion in Treas-ury securities
in the first quarter while purchasing more than $26 billion in agency bonds. Despite a
mixed performance of U.S. stock prices, foreign portfolio pur-chases of U.S. equities
exceeded $60 billion in the first quarter, more than half of the record annual total set
last year. U.S. purchases of foreign securities remained strong in the first quarter of
2000. 
Foreign direct investment flows into the United States were robust in the first quarter
of this year as well. As in the past two years, direct investment in-flows have been
elevated by the extraordinary level of cross-border merger and acquisition activity.
Portfolio flows have also been affected by this activity. For ex-ample, in recent years,
many of the largest acquisitions have been financed by swaps of equity in the foreign
acquiring firm for equity in the U.S. firm being ac-quired. The Bureau of Economic
Analysis estimates that U.S. residents acquired $123 billion of foreign equities in this
way last year. Separate data on market transactions indicate that U.S. residents made net
purchases of Japanese equities but sold European equities. The latter sales likely
reflect a rebalancing of portfo-lios after stock swaps. U.S. direct investment in foreign
economies has also re-mained strong, exceeding $30 billion in the first quarter of 2000.
Again, a signifi-cant portion of this investment was associated with cross-border merger
activity. 
Capital inflows from foreign official sources in the first quarter of this year were
sizable--$20 billion, compared with $43 billion for all of 1999. As was the case last
year, the increase in foreign official reserves in the United States in the first quarter
was concentrated in a relatively few countries. Partial data for the second quarter of
2000 show a small official outflow.
THE LABOR MARKET
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR SUPPLY
The labor market in early 2000 continued to be characterized by substantial job creation,
a historically low level of unemployment, and sizable advances in productiv-ity that have
held labor costs in check. The rise in overall nonfarm payroll employ-ment, which totaled
more than 1-1/2 million over the first half of the year, was swelled by the federal
government's hiring of intermittent workers to conduct the decennial census. Apart from
that temporary boost, which accounted for about one-fourth of the net gain in jobs
between December and June, nonfarm payroll em-ployment increased an average of 190,000
per month, somewhat below the robust pace of the preceding four years. 
Monthly changes in private payrolls were uneven at times during the first half the year,
but, on balance, the pace of hiring, while still solid, appears to have mod-erated
between the first and second quarters. In some industries, such as con-struction, the
pattern appears to have been exaggerated by unseasonably high lev-els of activity during
the winter that accelerated hiring that typically would have occurred in the spring.
After a robust first quarter, construction employment de-clined between April and June;
on average, hiring in this industry over the first half of the year was only a bit slower
than the rapid pace that prevailed from 1996 to 1999. However, employment gains in the
services industry, particularly in business and health services, were smaller in the
second quarter than in the first while job cutbacks occurred in finance, insurance, and
real estate after four and one-half years of steady expansion. Nonetheless, strong
domestic demand for consumer dur-ables and business equipment, along with support for
exports from the pickup in economic activity abroad, led to a leveling off in
manufacturing employment over the first half of 2000 after almost two years of decline.
And, with consumer spending brisk, employment at retail establishments, although
fluctuating widely from month to month, remained generally on a solid uptrend over the
first half.
The supply of labor increased slowly in recent years relative to the demand for workers.
The labor force participation rate was unchanged, on average, at 67.1 percent from 1997
to 1999; that level was just 0.6 percentage point higher than at the beginning of the
expansion in 1990. The stability of the participation rate over the 1997-99 period was
somewhat surprising because the incentives to enter the workforce seemed powerful: Hiring
was strong, real wages were rising more rapidly than earlier in the expansion, and
individuals perceived that jobs were plentiful. However, the robust demand for new
workers instead led to a substantial decline in unemployment, and the civilian jobless
rate fell from 5-1/4 percent at the beginning of 1997 to just over 4 percent at the end
of 1999. 
This year, the labor force participation rate ratcheted up sharply over the first four
months of the year before dropping back in recent months as employ-ment slowed. The spike
in participation early this year may have been a response to ready availability of job
opportunities, but Census hiring may also have temporarily attracted some individuals
into the workforce. On net, growth of labor demand and supply have been more balanced so
far this year, and the unemployment rate has held near its thirty-year low of 4 percent.
At midyear, very few signs of a signifi-cant easing in labor market pressures have
surfaced. Employers responding to vari-ous private surveys of business conditions report
that they have been unable to hire as many workers as they would like because skilled
workers are in short supply and competition from other firms is keen. Those concerns
about hiring have per-sisted even as new claims for unemployment insurance have drifted
up from very low levels in the past several months, suggesting that some employers may be
mak-ing workforce adjustments in response to slower economic activity. 
LABOR COSTS AND PRODUCTIVITY
Reports by businesses that workers are in short supply and that they are under pressure
to increase compensation to be competitive in hiring and retaining employ-ees became more
intense early this year. However, the available statistical indica-tors are providing
somewhat mixed and inconsistent signals of whether a broad ac-celeration in wage and
benefit costs is emerging. Hourly compensation, as measured by the employment cost index
(ECI) for private nonfarm businesses, increased sharply during the first quarter to a
level more than 4-1/2 percent above a year earlier. Before that jump, year-over-year
changes in the ECI compensation series had remained close to 3-1/2 percent for three
years. However, an alternative measure of compensation per hour, calculated as part of
the productivity and cost series, which has shown higher rates of increase than the ECI
in recent years, slowed in the first quarter of this year. For the nonfarm business
sector, compen-sation per hour in the first quarter was 4-1/4 percent higher than a year
earlier; in the first quarter of 1999, the four-quarter change was 5-1/4 percent. 
Part of the acceleration in the ECI in the first quarter was the result of a sharp
step-up in the wage and salary component of compensation change. While higher rates of
straight-time pay were widespread across industry and occupational groups, the most
striking increase occurred in the finance, insurance, and real es-tate industry where the
year-over-year change in wages and salaries jumped from about 4 percent for the period
ending in December 1999 to almost 8-1/2 percent for the period ending in March of this
year. The sudden spike in wages in that sec-tor could be related to commissions that are
tied directly to activity levels in the industry and, thus, would not represent a lasting
influence on wage inflation. For other industries, wages and salaries accelerated
moderately, which might appear plausible in light of reports that employers are
experiencing shortages of some types of skilled workers. However, the uptrend in wage
inflation that surfaced in the first-quarter ECI has not been so readily apparent in the
monthly data on aver-age hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers, which
are available through June. 
Although average hourly earnings increased at an annual rate of 4 percent be-tween
December and June, the June level of hourly wages stood 3-3/4 percent higher than a year
earlier, the same as the increase between June 1998 and June 1999.
While employers in many industries appear to have kept wage increases mod-erate, they may
be facing greater pressures from rising costs of employee bene-fits. The ECI measure of
benefit costs rose close to 3-1/2 percent during 1999, a percentage point faster than
during 1998; these costs accelerated sharply further in the first quarter of this year to
a level 5-1/2 percent above a year earlier. Much of last year's pickup in benefit costs
was associated with faster rates of increase in employer contributions to health
insurance, and the first-quarter ECI figures indicated another step-up in this component
of costs. Private survey information and available measures of prices in the health care
industry suggest that the upturn in the employer costs of health care benefits is
associated with both higher costs of health care and employers' willingness to offer
attractive benefit packages in order to compete for workers in a tight labor market.
Indeed, employers have been reporting that they are enhancing compensation packages with
a variety of benefits in order to hire and retain employees. Some of these offerings are
included in the ECI; for instance, the ECI report for the first quarter noted a pickup in
supple-mental forms of pay, such as overtime and nonproduction bonuses, and in paid
leave. However, other benefits cited by employers, including stock options, hiring and
re-tention bonuses, and discounts on store purchases, are not measured in the ECI. The
productivity and costs measure of hourly compensation may capture more of the non-wage
costs that employers incur, but even for that series, the best es-timates of employer
compensation costs are available only after business reports for unemployment insurance
and tax records are tabulated and folded into the an-nual revisions of the national
income and product accounts. 
Because businesses have realized sizable gains in worker productivity, com-pensation
increases have not generated significant pressure on overall costs of pro-duction. Output
per hour in the nonfarm business sector posted another solid ad-vance in the first
quarter, rising to a level 3-3/4 percent above a year earlier and offsetting much of the
rise in hourly compensation over the period. For nonfinancial corporations, the subset of
the nonfarm business sector that excludes types of businesses for which output is
measured less directly, the 4 percent year-over-year increase in productivity held unit
labor costs unchanged. 
With the further robust increases in labor productivity recently, the average rise in
output per hour in the nonfarm business sector since early 1997 has stepped up further to
3 percent from the 2 percent pace of the 1995-97 period. What has been particularly
impressive is that the acceleration of productivity in the past several years has
exceeded the pickup in output growth over the period and, thus, does not appear to be
simply a cyclical response to more rapidly rising demand. Rather, businesses are likely
realizing substantial and lasting payoffs from their investment in equipment and
processes that embody the technological advances of the past several years. 
PRICES
Rates of increase in the broader measures of prices moved up further in early 2000. After
having accelerated from 1 percent during 1998 to 1-1/2 percent last year, the chain-type
price index for GDP--prices of goods and services that are produced
domestically--increased at an annual rate of 3 percent in the first quar-ter of this
year. The upswing in inflation for goods and services purchased by con-sumers,
businesses, and governments has been somewhat greater: The chain-type price index for
gross domestic purchases rose at an annual rate of 3-1/2 percent in the first quarter
after having increased about 2 percent during 1999 and just 3/4 percent during 1998.
The pass-through of the steep rise in the cost of imported crude oil that be-gan in early
1999 and continued into the first half of this year has been the princi-pal factor in the
acceleration of the prices of goods and services purchased. The effect of higher energy
costs on domestic prices has been most apparent in indexes of prices paid by consumers.
After having risen 12 percent during 1999, the chain-type price index for energy items in
the price index for personal consumption ex-penditures (PCE) jumped at an annual rate of
35 percent in the first quarter of 2000; the first-quarter rise in the energy component
of the CPI was similar.
Swings in energy prices continued to have a noticeable effect on overall measures of
consumer prices in the second quarter. After world oil prices dropped back temporarily in
the spring, the domestic price of motor fuel dropped in April and May, and consumer
prices for energy, as measured by the CPI, retraced some of the first-quarter increase.
As a result, the overall CPI was little changed over the two months. However, with prices
of crude oil having climbed again, the bounce-back in prices of motor fuel led to a sharp
increase in the CPI for energy in June. In addition, with strong demand pressing against
available supplies, consumer prices of natural gas continued to rise rapidly in the
second quarter. In contrast to the steep rise in energy prices, the CPI for food has
risen slightly less than other non-energy prices so far this year.
Higher petroleum costs also fed through into higher producer costs for a number of
intermediate materials. Rising prices for inputs such as chemicals and paints contributed
importantly to the acceleration in the producer price index for intermediate materials
excluding food and energy from about 1-3/4 percent during 1999 to an annual rate of 3-1/2
percent over the first half of this year. Upward pressure on input prices was also
apparent for construction materials, although these have eased more recently. Prices of
imported industrial supplies also picked up early this year owing to higher costs of
petroleum inputs. 
Core consumer price inflation has also been running a little higher so far this year. The
chain-type price index for personal consumption expenditures other than food and energy
increased at an annual rate of 2-1/4 percent in the first quarter compared with an
increase of 1-1/2 percent during 1999. Based on the monthly es-timates of PCE prices in
April and May, core PCE price inflation looks to have been just a little below its
first-quarter rate. After having risen just over 2 percent be-tween the fourth quarter of
1998 and the fourth quarter of 1999, the CPI exclud-ing food and energy increased at an
annual rate of 2-1/4 percent in the first quar-ter of 2000 and at a 2-3/4 percent rate in
the second quarter. In part, the rise in core inflation likely reflects the indirect
effects of higher energy costs on the prices of a variety of goods and services, although
these effects are difficult to quantify with precision. Moreover, prices of non-oil
imported goods, which had been declining from late 1995 through the middle of last year,
continued to trend up early this year.
The pickup in core inflation, as measured by the CPI, has occurred for both consumer
goods and services. Although price increases for nondurable goods excluding food and
energy moderated, prices of consumer durables, which had fallen between 1996 and 1999,
were little changed, on balance, over the first half of this year. The CPI continued to
register steep declines for household electronic goods and computers, but prices of other
types of consumer durables have increased, on net, so far this year. The rate of increase
in the prices of non-energy consumer services has also been somewhat faster; the CPI for
these items increased at an annual rate of 3-1/2 percent during the first two quarters of
this year compared with a rise of 2-3/4 percent in 1999. Larger increases in the CPI
measures of rent and of medical services have contributed importantly to this
acceleration. Another factor has been a steeper rise in airfares, which have been boosted
in part to cover the higher cost of fuel. 
In addition to slightly higher core consumer price inflation, the national in-come and
product accounts measure of prices for private fixed investment goods shows that the
downtrend in prices for business fixed investment items has been interrupted. Most
notably, declines in the prices of computing equipment became much smaller in the final
quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year. A series of disruptions to the
supply of component inputs to computing equipment has combined with exceptionally strong
demand to cut the rate of price decline for computers, as measured by the chain-type
price index, to an annual rate of 12 per-cent late last year and early this year--half
the pace of the preceding three and one-half years. At the same time, prices of other
types of equipment and software continued to be little changed, and the chain-type index
for nonresidential struc-tures investment remained on a moderate uptrend. In contrast,
the further upward pressure on construction costs at the beginning of the year continued
to push the price index for residential construction higher; after having accelerated
from 3 percent to 3-1/2 percent between 1998 and 1999, this index increased at an annual
rate of 4-1/4 percent in the first quarter of 2000. 
Although actual inflation moved a bit higher over the first half of 2000, in-flation
expectations have been little changed. Households responding to the Michi-gan SRC survey
in June were sensitive to the adverse effect of higher energy prices on their real income
but seemed to believe that the inflationary shock would be short-lived. The median of
their expected change in CPI inflation over the com-ing twelve months was 2.9 percent.
Moreover, they remained optimistic that infla-tion would remain at about that rate over
the longer run, reporting a 2.8 percent median of expected inflation during the next five
to ten years. In both instances, their expectations are essentially the same as at the
end of 1999, although the year-ahead expectations are above the lower levels that had
prevailed in 1997 and early 1998.
U.S. FINANCIAL MARKETS
Conditions in markets for private credit firmed on balance since the end of 1999. Against
a backdrop of continued economic vitality in the United States and a tighter monetary
policy stance, private borrowing rates are higher, on net, particu-larly those charged to
riskier borrowers. In addition, banks have tightened terms and standards on most types of
loans. Higher real interest rates--as measured based on inflation expectations derived
from surveys and from yields on the Treas-ury's inflation-indexed securities--account for
the bulk of the increase in interest rates this year, with short-term real rates having
increased the most. Rising mar-ket interest rates and heightened uncertainties about
corporate prospects, espe-cially with regard to the high-tech sector, have occasionally
dampened flows in the corporate bond market and have weighed on the equity market, which
has, at times, experienced considerable volatility. Through mid-July, the broad-based
Wilshire 5000 equity index was up approximately 3 percent for the year.
INTEREST RATES
As the year began, with worries related to the century date change out of the way,
participants in the fixed-income market turned their attention to the signs of con-tinued
strength in domestic labor and product markets, and they quickly priced in the
possibility of a more aggressive tightening of monetary policy. Both private and Treasury
yields rose considerably. In the latter part of January, however, Treasury yields
plummeted, especially those on longer-dated securities, as the announced de-tails of the
Treasury's debt buyback program and upwardly revised forecasts of federal budget
surpluses led investors to focus increasingly on the prospects for a diminishing supply
of Treasury securities. A rise in both nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yields in
response to strong economic data and tighter monetary policy in April and May was partly
offset by supply factors and by occasional safe haven flows from the volatile equity
market. Since late May, market interest rates have declined as market participants have
interpreted the incoming economic data as evidence that monetary policy might not have to
be tightened as much as had been previously expected. On balance, while Treasury bill
rates and yields on shorter-dated notes have risen 15 to 80 basis points since the
beginning of the year, intermediate- and long-term Treasury yields have declined 5 to 55
basis points. In the corporate debt market, by contrast, bond yields have risen 10 to 70
basis points so far this year. 
Forecasts of steep declines in the supply of longer-dated Treasuries have combined with
tighter monetary policy conditions to produce an inverted Treasury yield curve, starting
with the two-year maturity. In contrast, yield curves else-where in the U.S. fixed-income
market generally have not inverted. In the interest rate swap market, for instance, the
yield curve has remained flat to upward sloping for maturities as long as ten years, and
the same has been true for yield curves for the most actively traded corporate bonds.
Nonetheless, private yield curves are flatter than usual, suggesting that, although
supply considerations have played a potentially important role in the inversion of the
Treasury yield curve this year, in-vestors' forecasts of future economic conditions have
also been a contributing fac-tor. In particular, private yield curves are consistent with
forecasts of a modera-tion in economic growth and expectations that the economy will be
on a sustainable, non-inflationary track, with little further monetary policy
tightening.
The disconnect between longer-term Treasury and private yields as a conse-quence of
supply factors in the Treasury market is distorting readings from yield spreads. For
instance, taken at face value, the spread of BBB corporate yields over the yield on the
ten-year Treasury note would suggest that conditions in the corpo-rate bond market so far
in 2000 are worse than those during the financial market turmoil of 1998. In contrast,
the spread of the BBB yield over the ten-year swap rate paints a very different picture,
with spreads up this year but below their peaks in 1998. Although the swap market is
still not as liquid as the Treasury secu-rities market, and swap rates are occasionally
subject to supply-driven distortions, such distortions have been less pronounced and more
short-lived than those affect-ing the Treasury securities market of late, making swap
rates a better benchmark for judging the behavior of other corporate yields. 
Aware that distortions to Treasury yields are likely to become more pro-nounced as more
federal debt is paid down, market participants have had to look for alternatives to the
pricing and hedging roles traditionally played by Treasuries in U.S. financial markets.
In addition to interest rate swaps, which have featured prominently in the list of
alternatives to Treasuries, debt securities issued by the three government-sponsored
housing agencies--Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks--have been
used in both pricing and hedging. The three housing agencies have continued to issue a
substantial volume of debt this year in an attempt to capture benchmark status, and the
introduction in March of futures and options contracts based on five- and ten-year notes
issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may help enhance the liquidity of the agency
securities market. None-theless, the market for agency debt has been affected by some
uncertainty this year regarding the agencies' special relationship with the government.
Both the Treasury and the Federal Reserve have suggested that it would be appropriate for
the Congress to consider whether the special standing of these institutions contin-ues to
promote the public interest, and pending legislation would, among other things,
restructure the oversight of these agencies and reexamine their lines of credit with the
U.S. Treasury.
The implementation of monetary policy, too, has had to adapt to the antici-pated paydowns
of marketable federal debt. Recognizing that there may be limita-tions on its ability to
rely as much as previously on transactions in Treasury securi-ties to meet the reserve
needs of depositories and to expand the supply of cur-rency, the FOMC decided at its
March 2000 meeting to facilitate until its first meeting in 2001 the Trading Desk's
ability to continue to accept a broader range of collateral in its repurchase
transactions. The initial approvals to help expand the collateral pool were granted in
August 1999 as part of the Federal Reserve's ef-forts to better manage possible
disruptions to financial markets related to the century date change. 
At the March 2000 meeting, the Committee also initiated a study to consider alternative
asset classes and selection criteria that could be appropriate for the System Open Market
Account (SOMA) should the size of the Treasury securities market continue to decline. For
the period before the completion and review of such a study, the Committee discussed, at
its May meeting, some changes in the management of the System's portfolio of Treasury
securities in an environment of decreasing Treasury debt. The changes aim to prevent the
System from coming to hold high and rising proportions of new Treasury debt issues. They
will also help the SOMA to limit any further lengthening of the average maturity of its
portfolio while continuing to meet long-run reserve needs to the greatest extent possible
through outright purchases of Treasury securities. The SOMA will cap the rollover of its
existing holdings at Treasury auctions and will engage in secondary market purchases
according to a schedule that effectively will result in a greater percent-age of holdings
of shorter-term security issues than of longer-dated ones. The schedule ranges from 35
percent of an individual issue for Treasury bills to 15 per-cent for longer-term bonds.
These changes were announced to the public on July 5, replacing a procedure in which all
maturing holdings were rolled over and in which coupon purchases were spread evenly
across the yield curve. 
EQUITY PRICES
Major equity indexes have posted small gains so far this year amid considerable
volatility. Fluctuations in technology stocks have been particularly pronounced: Af-ter
having reached a record high in March--24 percent above its 1999 year-end value--the
Nasdaq composite index, which is heavily weighted toward technology shares, swung widely
and by mid-July was up 5 percent for the year. Given its surge in the second half of
1999, the mid-July level of the Nasdaq was about 60 percent above its mid-1999 reading.
The broader S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 indexes have risen close to 3 percent since the
beginning of the year and are up about 10 percent and 13 percent, respectively, from
mid-1999. 
Corporate earnings reports have, for the most part, exceeded expectations, and
projections of future earnings continue to be revised higher. However, the in-crease in
interest rates since the beginning of the year likely has restrained the rise in equity
prices. In addition, growing unease about the lofty valuations reached by technology
shares and rising default rates in the corporate sector may have given some investors a
better appreciation of the risks of holding stocks in general. Reflecting the uncertainty
about the future course of the equity market, expected and actual volatilities of stock
returns rose substantially in the spring. At that time, volatility implied by options on
the Nasdaq 100 index surpassed even the ele-vated levels reached during the financial
market turmoil of 1998. 
Higher volatility and greater investor caution had a marked effect on public equity
offerings. The pace of initial public offerings has fallen off considerably in recent
months from its brisk first-quarter rate, with some offerings being can-celed or
postponed and others being priced well short of earlier expectations. On the other hand,
households' enthusiasm for equity mutual funds, especially those funds that invest in the
technology and international sectors, remains relatively high, although it appears to
have faded some after the run-up in stock market vola-tility in the spring. Following a
first-quarter surge, net inflows to stock funds mod-erated substantially in the second
quarter but still were above last year's average pace. 
DEBT AND THE MONETARY AGGREGATES
DEBT AND DEPOSITORY INTERMEDIATION
The total debt of the U.S. household, government, and nonfinancial business sectors is
estimated to have increased at close to a 5-1/2 percent annual rate in the first half of
2000. Outside the federal government sector, debt expanded at an annual rate of roughly
9-1/2 percent, buoyed by strength in household and business bor-rowing. Continued
declines in federal debt have helped to ease the pressure on available savings and have
facilitated the rapid expansion of nonfederal debt out-standing: The federal government
paid down $218 billion of debt over the first half of 2000, compared with paydowns of $56
billion and $101 billion in the first six months of calendar years 1998 and 1999
respectively. 
Depository institutions have continued to play an important role in meeting the strong
demands for credit by businesses and households. Adjusted for mark-to-market accounting
rules, credit extended by commercial banks rose 11-1/2 per-cent in the first half of
2000. This advance was paced by a brisk expansion of loans, which grew at an annual rate
of nearly 13 percent over this period. Bank credit increased in part because some
businesses sought bank loans as an alterna-tive to a less receptive corporate bond
market. In addition, the underlying strength of household spending helped boost the
demand for consumer and mortgage loans. Banks' holdings of consumer and mortgage loans
were also supported by a slower pace of securitizations this year. In the housing sector,
for instance, the rising in-terest rate environment has kept the demand for
adjustable-rate mortgages rela-tively elevated, and banks tend to hold these securities
on their books rather than securitize them. 
Banks have tightened terms and standards on loans further this year, espe-cially in the
business sector, where some lenders have expressed concerns about a more uncertain
corporate outlook. Bank regulators have noted that depository insti-tutions need to take
particular care in evaluating lending risks to account for possi-ble changes in the
overall macroeconomic environment and in conditions in securities markets. 
THE MONETARY AGGREGATES
Growth of the monetary aggregates over the first h